Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
